The survey shows that 40% of executives expect the business climate to weaken further over the next six months|CC BY-NC 4.0
Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and inflation are affecting business leaders’ trust in the US economy.
The Conference Board’s Q2 poll of 141 Fortune 500 CEOs yielded a confidence reading of 47, down 12 points from Q1. A reading under 50 indicates sentiment is tilted negative.
When President Donald Trump took office in 2025, several executives were optimistic he would boost businesses. However, what has followed is a period marred by tariff battles and the Iran war.
The high gas prices, which stem from Iran’s strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have driven the 12-month inflation rate to a three-year high of 3.8%.
The survey also shows that 40% of executives expect the business climate to weaken further over the next six months, up from just 13% in the previous survey.
Conversely, only 15% of CEOs believe economic conditions have improved compared to six months ago.
Despite the pessimism, corporate spending remains resilient. Approximately 37% of business leaders expect to increase their capital spending this year.
CEOs’ confidence plays an important role in hiring and investment, and many tend to pull back when it is low. This will further affect the US economy, which is already in a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ state.