The UAE’s decision weakens OPEC’s control over supply and exposes rifts between Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader|Alex.ch|CC BY-SA 2.0

Nearly six decades after joining, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has confirmed its exit from OPEC on May 1, marking a major shift in global energy politics amid Middle East tensions linked to the Iran war.

After Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the UAE is the third-largest oil producer among the 12-member OPEC.

The Arab nation said repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and missile and drone strikes on its infrastructure forced it to rethink its energy strategy.

The narrow waterway, which handles nearly a fifth of global crude flows, has faced severe shipping constraints, squeezing exports and raising regional tensions.

OPEC controls oil prices by coordinating each country’s production capacity, and is responsible for half the world’s oil exports.

The UAE said it is exiting OPEC to control its oil output and will steadily boost production as demand grows. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the UAE will focus on expanding output capacity toward 5 million barrels per day by 2027 without OPEC limits. Before the strait’s closure curbed shipments, the country produced 3.6 million barrels a day.

The decision weakens OPEC’s control over supply and exposes rifts between Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader.

Despite leaving the cartel, the UAE stressed it remains committed to market stability and will continue coordinating with global producers. Officials also insisted the move is not aimed at any member state, including Saudi Arabia. But the two nations are locked in a regional rivalry.

They also possess the greatest volumes of oil exceeding OPEC export allowances.

What are the experts saying?
Analysts say the UAE could expand market share as geopolitical conditions normalize. The exit may also challenge Saudi Arabia’s role as the main stabilizer within OPEC+, amid rising competition for production influence in the region.

Gulf producers continue to face shipping disruptions and security threats linked to Iranian attacks, prompting emergency talks among regional leaders in Saudi Arabia.