Europe may run out of jet fuel in six weeks, IEA says

Europe could face a major disruption in air travel as the continent has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel left, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned, raising concerns about summer travel and airline operations.

The crisis, described by IEA chief Fatih Birol as the “largest energy crisis” ever faced, stems from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The vital route has remained shut for over six weeks, cutting off nearly 20% of the world’s traded oil.

Europe, which relies on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel, is now facing soaring prices. Aviation fuel costs have jumped to $1,838 per tonne in April, more than double pre-war levels, putting intense pressure on airlines.

The continent is scrambling to import fuel from the US and Nigeria. However, the IEA said these supplies can replace only slightly over half of the lost volumes. Even global refiners in India, China, and South Korea depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude, limiting backup options.

Airlines under strain
Airlines already spend up to 40% of their costs on fuel. Some carriers have reported millions in extra costs and early cancellations, while governments and regulators are preparing emergency measures to keep flights running.

Europe’s largest airline, Ryanair, signaled it may face fuel shortages by June. Meanwhile, carriers like easyJet say operations remain stable for now, but higher costs are biting. It has secured 70% of its summer jet fuel needs.

To offset costs due to the surging jet fuel prices, several carriers are reducing the number of flights. KLM plans to cancel 160 flights next month, affecting about 1% of its European network.

Airlines around the world are also looking to recover losses and are hiking ticket prices. Back home, major carriers have increased checked baggage fees.

The crisis is pushing up petrol, gas, and electricity prices worldwide, increasing inflation risks. More than 110 oil tankers and several LNG carriers remain stranded in the Gulf, unable to reach global markets.

Long recovery ahead
More than 80 energy facilities in the region have been damaged, with over one-third of them severely affected. Even if the conflict ends soon, restoring oil and gas production could take up to two years.

Experts warn that developing nations will suffer the most. If disruptions persist, the global economy could experience slower growth or even a recession.

But the US is not as affected. The country meets the majority of its airlines’ fuel demand through domestic production.