Online retail sales are expected to jump 9% this holiday season
Americans are expected to spend a record $1 trillion or more this holiday, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Bain & Co.
Bain & Co. estimates overall US retail sales to increase by 4.5% in 2026, surpassing 2025’s 3.5% growth—while NRF projects a 4.2% rise.
Sales are expected to remain high despite inflation and high fuel prices affecting price tags.
United Parcel Service, Inc. raised its earnings outlook and anticipates a 25% surge in average daily package volume from the third to fourth quarter. Its stock surged 5.2%.
Online retail sales are projected to increase 9%, providing a boost to UPS. However, inflation accounts for much of the overall sales growth. In categories such as sporting goods, books, music, department stores and home furnishings, higher prices are driving sales increases even as the number of items sold declines.