UN warns the odds of a super El Nino are rising

A powerful El Nino weather pattern could begin within weeks and may become one of the strongest ever recorded, according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The agency says there is an 80% chance the climate pattern will emerge by the end of August, and a 90% chance it will be established by November.

Scientists say the event is likely to intensify through the rest of 2026, adding extra heat to a world already warming due to climate change.

Warming Pacific raises concern
El Nino develops when changing wind patterns allow warm water to spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Every two to seven years, something unusual happens in the Pacific Ocean: the trade winds that normally push warm water toward Asia weaken or even reverse. As warm water flows back toward the Americas, it triggers El Nino—a climate pattern that can influence weather worldwide. It takes only a 0.5 degree celsius increase in sea-surface temperatures for scientists to classify an event as El Nino.

Over recent months, ocean temperatures in key monitoring regions have risen steadily, while unusually warm water has built up beneath the surface. Scientists believe this hidden heat could fuel a major El Nino event later this year.

Some forecasting models suggest temperatures in the Pacific could climb well above normal levels, placing this event among the strongest on record. Researchers at weather agencies in the UK and the United States say current conditions resemble those seen before previous “super” El Nino events.

According to the National Weather Service, the chances of a Super El Nino have risen from 25% to 37%. The phenomenon occurs when temperatures in a critical area of the Pacific exceed 2 degree celsius above normal.

Global weather impacts expected
A strong El Nino can trigger droughts, heatwaves and wildfires in parts of South America, Australia and Southeast Asia. It may also weaken India’s monsoon, increase flood risks in the southern United States, and disrupt rainfall patterns across Africa.

Experts warn that the combination of El Nino and human-driven climate change could make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded. Beyond extreme weather, the event could also affect food production, supply chains, and global economies, leading to higher costs and economic losses worldwide.