US consumers pay the price for Trump’s tariffs, study finds

A new study shows that Americans are bearing nearly the full cost of US tariffs, challenging President Donald Trump’s long-standing claim that overseas exporters pay the price.

The report, released Monday by Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy, analyzed $4 trillion in global trade from January 2024 to November 2025. 

It found that US consumers and companies absorbed 96% of tariff costs, while foreign exporters paid only 4% by slightly cutting prices.

Trump has argued that tariffs strengthen US leverage and force other nations to contribute more. However, economists say the reality looks different.  Instead of lowering prices, many foreign sellers reduced shipments or shifted to other markets.

This trend is already visible in trade data. Indian exports to the US dropped by 18% to 24%, while prices remained mostly unchanged. 

German exports have also fallen sharply, showing that tariffs are limiting trade rather than punishing exporters.

While inflation remains moderate for now, economists warn that higher prices could surface over time.

What comes next?
Experts say foreign exporters may absorb more costs over time if US firms find alternative suppliers. Until then, American consumers remain the ones paying the bill.