‘Survivor’ anchor Jeff Probst responded, saying that prediction market platforms are ‘incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal to get ahead’|survivorcbs|Instagram
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are presenting an unforeseen challenge for pre-taped reality TV by spoiling show endings through betting odds.
For Survivor 50, trades initially gave the winner, Aubry Bracco, a 61% chance of winning six weeks before the February 25 season premiere. This surged to 83% by January 28, and a user placed a $45,500 bet on February 28, eventually making a $4,500 profit.
By the finale, a staggering $32.7 million in wagers on Kalshi drove Bracco’s odds to 97%, while Polymarket saw a $1.9 million trade volume.
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Similarly, Kalshi users gave Galaxy Girl in The Masked Singer 91% odds of winning, three months before the finale.
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In the Next Level Chef, Kalshi users predicted the winner in February, way before the finale aired on May 21.
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For season 22 of The Bachelorette, contestant Doug Mason peaked at 89.5% on Polymarket and 93% on Kalshi before ABC canceled the premiere.
The accuracy of these bets has raised insider trading concerns for the TV shows. Survivor anchor Jeff Probst responded, saying that prediction market platforms are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal to get ahead.”
Kashi responded, saying it has banned such acts and attributed the accuracy to traders leveraging public online rumors.