​​With US and Israeli airstrikes hitting Iran, Polymarket users cashed in on roughly $529 million in bets tied to the timing of the attacks, prompting blockchain researchers to hunt for unusual trading activity, Bloomberg reports.
Six newly created Polymarket accounts collectively made about $1 million by correctly betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28.
Polymarket’s offshore model allows betting on military conflicts that US‑regulated Kalshi is barred from offering. Still, both hosted markets on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would be out of power, triggering criticism of Kalshi’s handling of payouts after his death.