An anonymous user earned $400,000 on Polymarket wagering on the fall of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro|@WhiteHouse|X
An anonymous bettor earned a massive $400,000 on the prediction market site Polymarket recently from wagering $32,000 on the fall of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be out of power by the end of January, just hours before the US military operation that captured him.
The incident has sparked intense debate over the potential for insider trading in largely unregulated prediction markets.
The user’s account was created only weeks earlier and focused heavily on Venezuela-related outcomes, raising suspicions that the bettor may have had access to non-public information.
The significant cash win has spotlighted a regulatory gap. While platforms prohibit insider trading, such as federal employees betting on government actions, legal experts note that prosecuting such cases can be challenging.
Most users on these sites use pseudonyms, and their accounts are often linked to cryptocurrency wallets, making it nearly impossible to trace their identities.
Unlike the stock market, which the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tightly regulates, prediction markets like Polymarket fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an agency with fewer enforcement resources.
Furthermore, Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser and investor in these platforms, which raises ethics and impartiality concerns about government oversight.
Meanwhile, the prediction market industry is experiencing unprecedented growth. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen monthly bets rise from under $100 million in early 2024 to more than $13 billion in November 2025.