Black Friday sales expected to break record, but shoppers may find fewer deals

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects a record 186.9 million Americans will shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, though many are pulling back on their spending.

The NRF estimates average per-person holiday spending at $890, slightly below last year’s $902.

Shoppers have noticed that Black Friday sales discounts have declined at many retailers.

Some told Reuters they have significantly reduced their shopping budgets from 2024 as inflation and rising household costs, including looming healthcare premium jumps, squeeze discretionary spending.

However, November data from Bank of America show that households across all income levels hold more deposits than in 2019. This signals that shoppers are avoiding using their savings.

Meanwhile, retailers have extended the holiday window with early promotions. Walmart launched multistage deals beginning November 14, Amazon opened its Black Friday week early, and Macy’s rolled out a dedicated portal for it.

The NRF expects November–December sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time.

Black Friday began as a name for the 1869 stock market crash. The term resurfaced in the 1950s in Philadelphia to describe the post-Thanksgiving chaos caused by crowds attending the Army-Navy game.

Retailers rebranded it in the 1980s to mark the moment accountants changed ink colors to mark red for losses and black for earnings, cementing Black Friday as the start of a modern shopping season.