About 77% of Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales could face patent losses by 2033, largely because of Ozempic|@novonordisk|X
The pharmaceutical industry is heading toward one of its biggest patent expirations in decades, putting more than $500 billion in projected global drug sales at risk through 2033.
When patents expire, cheaper generic or biosimilar versions can quickly take market share, sharply reducing revenue for drugmakers. This pressure is pushing companies to develop new medicines, pursue partnerships and acquire promising biotech firms.
Merck faces one of the biggest challenges. Its cancer drug Keytruda, which generated nearly $32 billion in 2025, will lose US patent protection in 2028. Bristol Myers Squibb also faces major losses as blood thinner Eliquis and cancer drug Opdivo approach patent expirations.
Novo Nordisk has the largest exposure among major drugmakers. About 77% of its 2025 sales could face patent losses by 2033, largely because of Ozempic. The diabetes and weight-loss drug generated nearly $20 billion last year.
The looming revenue losses are already fueling dealmaking. Drugmakers spent $114 billion on acquisitions and partnerships in the latest quarter, the highest quarterly total since 2019.
Merck’s partnership with Moderna highlights the strategy. Their experimental cancer vaccine success recently added more than $40 billion to Merck’s market value in one day.
Eli Lilly is better positioned, with patents protecting Mounjaro and Zepbound extending into the latter half of the next decade.